To accurately guess your time on a 1000m test swim in the pool (without looking at the pace clock) takes practice and experience. To accurately guess your time on a 3 km swim in a calm lake (without looking at your wristwatch) is remarkable. To accurately guess your time on an English Channel swim is rare. But to accurately guess your relay time on a 228-mile swim in the Pacific Ocean is downright uncanny.
But Phil Cutti is that kind of athlete and prognosticator.
With a sharp intellect, some well-thought-out assumptions, and teammates who swam consistently well-paced through strong winds, large ocean swells, curious marine life, thick kelp beds, and night, the Night Train Swimmer was remarkably right on the money.
“My guess with a 3 pm start in Gaviota is that our best-case scenario would have us land at 11:43 am [the following week]; the worse-case scenario would have us land at 7:23 am [the next morning; but the likely case is that we will land in San Diego at 7:19 pm.”
The Night Train Swimmers landed at 7:28 pm.
9 minutes off on a relay swim that lasted over 100 hours over 367 kilometers. Remarkably uncanny.
Copyright © 2013 by Open Water Swimming